What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability calculator converts betting odds into percentage probabilities. It helps bettors understand the true probability behind sportsbook odds by removing the bookmaker's margin. This tool is essential for value betting, identifying overround, and making informed wagering decisions. By transforming decimal odds into percentages, users can compare actual probability expectations with bookmakers' assessments to find profitable betting opportunities.
Implied Probability Calculator
Formula
The fundamental formula for implied probability with decimal odds is:
Implied Probability (%) = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100
This converts decimal odds to percentage probability. For example, odds of 2.00 = (1/2)*100 = 50% probability.
How to Use
Enter decimal odds in the input field (e.g., 3.50). Click Calculate to get the implied probability percentage. The result shows the bookmaker's estimated probability including their margin. Compare this with your own probability assessment to identify value bets. Use the Clear button to reset. For odds below 2.00 (favorites), the probability will be above 50%; for odds above 2.00 (underdogs), below 50%.
Derivation Process
The calculator derives implied probability by reversing the odds format. Bookmakers create odds using probability estimates plus a margin. For decimal odds (used in Europe), probability = 1/decimal odds. The calculation normalizes outcomes to 100% total probability across all outcomes. The margin is hidden in the odds pricing through reduced probabilities. This tool removes complex calculations, providing instant probability conversion for informed decision-making.