Indicated Probability Calculator
An indicated probability calculator helps bettors convert betting odds into implied probabilities. It reveals the likelihood of an outcome as suggested by the odds, helping users identify value bets and understand market expectations across different odds formats (decimal, fractional, moneyline).
Formula
For Decimal Odds: Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) * 100
For Fractional Odds: Probability = (Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator)) * 100
For Moneyline Odds: Positive: (100 / (Odds + 100)) * 100, Negative: (-Odds / (-Odds + 100)) * 100
Calculator
How to Use
Select your odds format, enter the numerical odds value, and click calculate. The calculator will convert your betting odds into implied probability percentage. For fractional odds use "3/2" format, for moneyline use "+150" or "-200" format. Use clear button to reset all fields.
Derivation Process
The calculator converts odds to probabilities by reversing the bookmaker's margin calculation. For decimal odds, it inverts the odds multiplier. For fractional odds, it calculates the proportion of implied success. For moneyline, positive odds use risk/reward ratio while negative odds reflect required stake percentage. The formulas account for different odds presentation formats used globally.
FAQs
What is indicated probability?
Indicated probability represents the implied likelihood of an outcome derived from betting odds. It shows the percentage chance of an event occurring as suggested by the current odds, helping bettors assess value in wagers.
How accurate is this calculator?
The calculator provides mathematically precise conversions based on standard odds formulas. Accuracy depends on input correctness. It doesn't account for bookmaker margins - actual probabilities are slightly lower due to the overround.
Can it handle different odds formats?
Yes, the calculator supports decimal (European), fractional (UK), and moneyline (American) formats. Simply select your preferred format before entering the odds value.
Why calculate implied probability?
Implied probability helps identify discrepancies between bookmakers' odds and your own probability assessments. This is crucial for finding value bets and making informed wagering decisions.
What's the overround effect?
Bookmakers add a margin (overround) to odds, making total probabilities exceed 100%. This calculator shows raw probabilities - subtract 1-2% for actual bookmaker estimates.
Can I compare different odds formats?
Yes, by converting all odds to probabilities, you can directly compare prices from different bookmakers regardless of their presentation format.
How to interpret results?
Results show percentage likelihood. If your assessment exceeds this percentage, it may represent a value bet. Always consider margins and variance in sports outcomes.
Decimal vs fractional odds?
Both represent the same information differently. Decimal shows total return per unit stake, fractional shows profit relative to stake. The calculator handles both conversions seamlessly.
Negative moneyline odds?
Negative moneyline (-150) indicates favorites. The calculator converts these to higher probabilities. Positive odds (+200) underdogs convert to lower percentages.
Educational value?
This tool helps beginners understand odds relationships and probability concepts. Use it to learn how bookmakers set prices and identify mathematical value in betting markets.